Main Takeaways
- Tight margins are expected to continue in 2025 for corn, soybeans, and wheat with commodity prices likely near or below the breakeven cost of production.
- Bountiful grain and oilseed production, combined with a strong U.S. dollar and uncertain trade policy, leads to expectations for lower prices in 2025.
- Expect more acres planted to corn, fewer acres planted to soybeans, and wheat plantings comparable to last year.
Market Situation
Last year’s harvest saw bountiful production of the major U.S. grain crops. This increase in production was driven by higher yields with corn forecast to set a record yield per acre and soybeans projected to tie for its second-highest yield on record. The soybean and wheat increase in production was also aided by more planted acres during the 2024 crop year. On the demand side, domestic use was up for all three grains and so were exports.
Crop prices were all lower by the end of 2024 relative to earlier in the year. However, they were still above both the prepandemic lows and the reference prices in the farm bill safety net. Despite slight decreases in input prices compared to 2023, production expenses remained near or above the commodity prices. All these factors led to narrow or negative profit margins and forecasts of lower net farm incomes.
Looking ahead to 2025, margins will continue to be narrow or negative for grain producers with lingering high input costs and expectations for commodity prices to remain low.
Corn
The United States planted 90.7 million acres of corn in 2024, which was down 3.9 million acres from 2023. Record-high U.S. corn yields were predicted for the 2024 crop at 183.1 bushels per acre. If realized, total U.S. corn production will reach the third-highest yield on record at 15.1 billion bushels. Compared to the 2023–24 marketing year, the use of corn was projected to be up 221 million bushels for feed, fuels, and exports.
Exports are an important component of demand and there is uncertainty about how proposed tariffs will impact agricultural trade with the new incoming administration. However, the end of 2024 saw a win for U.S. corn exports when an international trade decision ruled that Mexico’s restrictions on imports of genetically modified corn violated the terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. For the 2024–25 marketing year, around 2.5 billion bushels of U.S. corn are estimated to be exported to foreign markets, up 183 million bushels from 2023. Projected ending stocks were projected down just 22 million bushels from the 2023–24 marketing year to 1.7 billion bushels for the 2024–25 crop.
Georgia producers planted 375,000 acres of corn, down 22.7% from 2023. Yields also were forecast down 18.4% at 142 bushels per acre. If realized, Georgia’s corn production is projected to be down 36.9% from 2023 to the second-lowest level in the last 10 years. With the large U.S. supply and export uncertainty, prices are expected to go down in 2025. Based on futures prices at the writing of this article and a positive historical local basis, expected corn prices in Georgia will likely average $4.75 per bushel in 2025.
Soybeans
U.S. planted soybean acres in 2024 were up 3.5 million acres to a total of 87.1 million planted acres. With forecast yields up slightly at 51.7 bushels per acre, the U.S. soybean crop was estimated to be 4.46 billion bushels, up 299 million bushels from 2023. On the usage side, soybean crush was projected up 123 million bushels to 2.4 billion, and exports were also up 130 million bushels to 1.8 billion, leaving total 2024 soybean use up 243 million bushels to 4.3 billion. U.S. ending stocks were forecast up 128 million bushels to 470 million bushels. U.S. planted acres are likely to go down for soybeans in 2025.
Georgia growers planted slightly more soybean acres in 2024 at 170,000 acres. Yields were projected down three bushels per acre to an average of 40 bushels per acre. In Georgia, growers generally see a positive local basis for soybeans. Based on futures prices and a positive historical local basis, expected season average soybean prices in Georgia would likely be around $10 per bushel in 2025.
Wheat
Despite world wheat production being projected to go up for the 3rd year in a row to almost 793 million metric tons, production is 9.5 million metric tons short of the projected demand of 802.5 million metric tons. As a result, world wheat ending stocks are estimated down for the 3rd year in a row to 257.9 million metric tons, the lowest level in the past decade. Tighter ending stocks may lead to more volatility in wheat prices in the case of a geopolitical conflict or natural disaster.
Planted wheat acres in the United States were down 3.5 million acres from 2023–24 to 46.1 million acres in 2024–25. U.S. wheat production for 2024–25 was projected to be 1.97 billion bushels, up for the 2nd year in a row because of higher yields. U.S. projected yields are 51.2 bushels per acre. U.S. ending stocks are projected to be 795 million bushels, up 99 million from 2023–24.
Georgia farmers are estimated to have planted 145,000 acres, down 25.6% from 2023–24. Georgia wheat production, forecast at 3.5 million bushels, continued trending down for the 4th year in a row on fewer planted acres. Georgia yields, however, were expected to be the second highest on record at 59 bushels per acre. Georgia growers generally see a negative basis for wheat. Based on futures prices and a negative historical local basis, expected season average wheat prices in Georgia will likely be around $5.50 per bushel.
Status and Revision History
In Review on Jan 15, 2025
Published on Jan 22, 2025